transport energy demand forecasting using markov chain grey model: case study of iran

Authors

عالیه کاظمی

استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، ایران محمد مدرس

استاد دانشکده مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران محمدرضا مهرگان

دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه

abstract

the aim of this paper is to present the prediction model of the transport energy demand in iran. markov chain grey model (mcgm) is proposed to forecast the transport energy demand of iran. then it is compared with grey model (gm) and regression model. moreover, the mcgm forecasting model is used to forecast the annual gasoline demand of iran up to the year 1400. the aim of this paper is to present the prediction model of the transport energy demand in iran. markov chain grey model (mcgm) is proposed to forecast the transport energy demand of iran. then it is compared with grey model (gm) and regression model. moreover, the mcgm forecasting model is used to forecast the annual gasoline demand of iran up to the year 1400. ..

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

FORECASTING TRANSPORT ENERGY DEMAND IN IRAN USING META-HEURISTIC ALGORITHMS

This paper presents application of an improved Harmony Search (HS) technique and Charged System Search algorithm (CSS) to estimate transport energy demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast transport energy demand in Iran. These models are developed to estimate the future energy demands based on pop...

full text

energy demand forecast of iran’s industrial sector using markov chain grey model

the aim of this paper is to develop a prediction model of energy demand of iran’s industrial sector. for that matter a markov chain grey model (mcgm) has been proposed to forecast such energy demand. to find the effectiveness of the proposed model, it is then compared with grey model (gm) and regression model. the comparison reveals that the mcgm model has higher precision than those of the gm ...

full text

Forecasting Intermittent Demand by Markov Chain Model

The inventory control of the products which have intermittent demand is essential for many organizations since these items have a low lead time demand but a high price. Since the intermittent demand pattern is irregular, the estimation of the lead time demand is challenging. A modified Markov chain model (MMCM) has been proposed for modeling and estimating intermittent demand data, motivated by...

full text

design of a fuzzy linear regression model for forecasting transport energy demand: a case study of iran

in this paper, the energy demand of transport sector from 1385 to 1400 is forecasted based on fuzzy linear regression (flr) approach considering economic and social indicators. in order to analyze the influence of economic and social indicators on energy demand of transport sector, gross domestic product (gdp), population and the total number of vehicles in 1372-1384 were regarded. in this rese...

full text

analysis of ruin probability for insurance companies using markov chain

در این پایان نامه نشان داده ایم که چگونه می توان مدل ریسک بیمه ای اسپیرر اندرسون را به کمک زنجیره های مارکوف تعریف کرد. سپس به کمک روش های آنالیز ماتریسی احتمال برشکستگی ، میزان مازاد در هنگام برشکستگی و میزان کسری بودجه در زمان وقوع برشکستگی را محاسبه کرده ایم. هدف ما در این پایان نامه بسیار محاسباتی و کاربردی تر از روش های است که در گذشته برای محاسبه این احتمال ارائه شده است. در ابتدا ما نشا...

15 صفحه اول

Using grey-weighted Markov chain model to predict the quantum of highway passenger transport

The grey-weighted Markov model is a prediction model integrating the advantages of grey model and Markov chain model. It can be applied to predict the highway passenger transport quantum. Compared with grey model, the grey-weighted Markov chain model improved the precise of prediction, so the combined model was more appropriate for the prediction of highway passenger transport. Based on the ori...

full text

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023